Analysis of the impact of green transformation of the steel industry on carbon steel exports in 2025
release time：
2025-07-25 17:11
The multi-dimensional impact of the green transformation of the steel industry on carbon steel exports in 2025
Ⅰ. Background and policy drivers of green transformation
In 2025, China's steel industry is in a critical period of the "dual carbon" goal. According to the "Implementation Plan for Carbon Peaking in the Steel Industry" of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the industry needs to reduce the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel by 5%, and increase the proportion of short-process steelmaking to 20%. Under this background, carbon steel, as a traditional high-energy-consuming product, is facing three major changes in its production:
Technological innovation: The application of low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen-based vertical furnaces and oxygen-enriched combustion increases the production cost of a ton of steel by about 200-300 yuan
Carbon cost internalization: The carbon price in the national carbon market has exceeded 120 yuan/ton, and the implicit cost of carbon steel exports has increased by 12%-15%
Standard upgrade: The EU CBAM mechanism has been fully implemented, and the implicit carbon tariff imposed on Chinese carbon steel has reached 8%-10%
Ⅱ. Recommendations on corporate response strategies
Production side: Establish a carbon-sufficient system for the entire life cycle from iron ore to finished products Trace database (such as Baowu Group's "Carbon Digital Intelligence" platform
Trade side: Develop a differentiated pricing strategy for "green steel", referring to the 15% premium low-carbon steel agreement signed by Anshan Iron and Steel and Vietnamese automakers in 2025
Policy side: Actively participate in the formulation of international standards and promote mutual recognition between China's EPD system and the EU
Ⅲ. Outlook for future trends
As the global carbon border adjustment mechanism becomes stricter, it is expected that by 2026:
Green premium will become the core competitive factor of carbon steel exports
The proportion of short-process carbon steel exports will exceed 35%
Carbon tariff costs may account for more than 20% of export prices
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